Boise State vs. Utah State prediction, odds: Week 13 college football picks, best bets from proven model

Albertsons Stadium showcases a matchup between strong Mountain West teams on the day after Thanksgiving. The Boise State Broncos host the Utah State Aggies in the regular season finale for both programs. Boise State is 8-3 overall and 7-0 in Mountain West play this season, clinching a spot in the Mountain West title game. Utah State is 6-5 overall and 5-2 in Mountain West play with an active, three-game winning streak.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Broncos as 17-point favorites for this noon ET kickoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 51.5 in the latest Utah State vs. Boise State odds. Before making any Boise State vs. Utah State picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model has to say.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Utah State vs. Boise State and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several college football odds and betting lines for Boise State vs. Utah state:

  • Utah State vs. Boise State spread: Boise State -17 
  • Utah State vs. Boise State over/under: 51.5 points 
  • Utah State vs. Boise State money line: BSU -800, USU +550 
  • USU: The Aggies are 4-3 against the spread in the last seven games 
  • BSU: The Broncos are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven games 
  • Utah State vs. Boise State: See picks at SportsLine 
  • Utah State vs. Boise State streaming: Paramount+

Featured Game | Boise State Broncos vs. Utah State Aggies

Why Utah State can cover

The Aggies have solid offensive metrics on their side. Utah State is in the top five of the Mountain West in total offense, generating more than 350 yards per game, and the Aggies are also averaging 162.1 rushing yards per contest. Calvin Tyler Jr. is the engine of the ground game, producing 978 rushing yards (No. 3 in Mountain West) and 128 receiving yards this season. On the outside, Brian Cobbs is No. 4 in the conference with 769 receiving yards, and he has 63 receptions this season. 

On the other side, Utah State is particularly stingy in passing defense. The Aggies are allowing only 196.5 passing yards per game, and opponents are averaging only 6.8 yards per pass attempt while completing only 53.1% of passes. Utah State has 11 interceptions and 22 sacks in 11 games, putting constant pressure on the opposition.

Why Boise State can cover

Boise State should benefit from Utah State’s offensive shortcomings in this matchup. Utah State has 16 interceptions in 11 games, more than any team in the Mountain West, and the Aggies are completing only 57.7% of passes. The Aggies are also averaging only 3.8 yards per carry on the ground, with Utah State ranking in the bottom five of the Mountain West with a 32.5% third down efficiency rate. Boise State is also excellent on defense, including the best passing resistance in the conference. 

The Broncos are allowing only 145.4 passing yards per game, with opponents throwing 11 interceptions, generating only nine passing touchdowns, and completing only 49.8% of passes. Boise State is in the top three of the Mountain West in scoring defense (17.3 points allowed per game), total defense (268.0 yards allowed per game), rushing defense (122.6 yards allowed per game), and yards per carry allowed (3.6).

How to make Utah State vs. Boise State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, with each team deploying a rusher projected to generate more than 75 yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s CFB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Utah State vs. Boise State? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Utah State vs. Boise State spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.  

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