Cardinals vs. 49ers odds, spread, line: Monday Night Football in Mexico City picks, predictions by NFL model

It’s a battle of NFC West foes south of the border in NFL Week 11 when the Arizona Cardinals face the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. The matchup at Estadio Azteca will be the fifth NFL regular-season NFL Mexico City matchup, and these teams played in the first one in 2005. The Cardinals won that matchup 31-14 and come in having won three of the past four meetings in the series. The 49ers (5-4) are a half-game behind the Seahawks (6-4) in the NFC West standings and have won consecutive games.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. San Francisco is an 8-point favorite in the latest Cardinals vs. 49ers odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the Over/Under for total points scored is 43. Before you lock in any 49ers vs. Cardinals picks or NFL Week 11 bets, you have to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 153-108 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has broken down Monday night’s 49ers vs. Cardinals matchup. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are some betting lines and trends for Cardinals vs. 49ers:

  • Cardinals vs. 49ers spread: San Francisco -8
  • Cardinals vs. 49ers Over/Under: 43 points
  • Cardinals vs. 49ers money line: San Francisco -365, Arizona +285
  • SF: Niners are 48-47-1 ATS (50.5%) under coach Kyle Shanahan (since 2017)
  • AZ: Cardinals are 31-27-2 ATS (53.4%) under coach Kliff Kingsbury (since 2019).

Why the 49ers can cover

San Francisco is technically the road team, but they are expected to have huge backing, with estimates showing more than 80 percent of tickets being sold to 49ers fans. San Francisco will bank on its elite defense, which ranks first in yards allowed (281) and yields 18 points per game (fourth). The Cardinals score 23 per game (13th), and the offense is just 19th in total yards (334 per game) and rushing yards (113). San Francisco’s defense is tied for fifth with 29 sacks, led by Nick Bosa’s 9.5, and Arizona QBs have been taken down 27 times.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo went without a touchdown pass last week, but he is 10-2 when he does that. He threw for 240 yards and is completing almost 67 percent of his passes, with 1,931 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions in eight games. He is surrounded by talent, with running back Christian McCaffrey, tight end George Kittle and receiver Deebo Samuel all top-tier players. McCaffrey has 226 total yards and four TDs during the team’s two-game win streak. Receiver Brandon Aiyuk, Samuel and Kittle all have at least 29 catches. See which team to pick here.

Why the Cardinals can cover

Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury is 18-6-2 against the spread in his career as an underdog of three or more points. The Cardinals beat the 49ers by at least a touchdown in both meetings last season, including a 31-17 victory in San Francisco in the most recent matchup. McCoy threw for 238 yards and a touchdown in last week’s victory, but Murray and he were limited in practice this week. No matter who has been behind center, the Cardinals haven’t been making mistakes. Only three teams have fewer than their nine turnovers, and they have 14 takeaways.

Underdogs are 83-62-4 ATS in the NFL this season and underdogs of more than four points are 48-26. Arizona has the ninth-best run defense (110 yards per game) and should make Garoppolo beat them. Cardinals receiver Deandre Hopkins, who has 396 receiving yards since returning from injury in Week 7. Rondale Moore has 41 receptions for 414 yards and has the talent to play a larger role if they are out. See which team to pick here.

How to make Cardinals vs. 49ers picks

The model has broken down Monday Night Football’s Cardinals vs. 49ers matchup from all angles. It is leaning Under the total, with the model suggesting turnovers could derail the offenses. The model also has a strong against the spread pick, saying one side cashes well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the picks at SportsLine.

So who wins 49ers vs. Cardinals on Monday Night Football in Mexico City? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the 49ers vs. Cardinals spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 153-108 roll on its top-rated NFL picks.

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