Cardinals vs. 49ers odds, spread, line: Monday Night Football in Mexico City picks, predictions from NFL model

The banged-up Arizona Cardinals will try to continue their mastery of the San Francisco 49ers when the teams meet on Monday Night Football in Mexico City. This is the fifth NFL game to be played at Estadio Azteca, and the first one in 2005 involved these same two teams. That was the first NFL game played outside the United States, and the Cardinals won 31-14. Arizona comes in off a 27-17 victory against the Rams last week, with Colt McCoy filling in for Kyler Murray. The starting quarterback is recovering from a hamstring injury and is questionable for Monday Night Football. The 49ers (5-4) have won two in a row, beating the Chargers 22-16 last Sunday following their bye week.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. San Francisco is a 10-point favorite in the latest Cardinals vs. 49ers odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the Over/Under for total points scored is 43.5. Before you lock in any 49ers vs. Cardinals picks or NFL Week 11 bets, you have to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 153-108 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has broken down Monday night’s 49ers vs. Cardinals matchup. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are some betting lines and trends for Cardinals vs. 49ers:

  • Cardinals vs. 49ers spread: San Francisco -10
  • Cardinals vs. 49ers Over/Under: 43.5 points
  • Cardinals vs. 49ers money line: San Francisco -480, Arizona +360
  • SF: Niners are 48-47-1 ATS (50.5%) under coach Kyle Shanahan (since 2017)
  • AZ: Cardinals are 31-27-2 ATS (53.4%) under coach Kliff Kingsbury (since 2019).

Why the 49ers can cover

San Francisco is 3-0 against the spread in divisional games this season, and the Cardinals could have a lot of trouble moving the ball. The 49ers’ defense ranks first in yards allowed (281 per game) and fourth in scoring (18 points per contest). Arizona’s offense is 13th in scoring (13th) and 19th in total (334) and rushing yards (113). Cardinals quarterbacks have been sacked 27 times and face a 49ers defense that is tied for fifth in the NFL with 29 sacks. Nick Bosa has 9.5, tied for second in the league, and leads in quarterback hits with 24.

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t been lighting it up, but he is completing almost 67 percent of his passes and has thrown just four interceptions. In fact, he is 10-2 straight-up when he doesn’t throw a TD pass. He is surrounded by talented players like running back Christian McCaffrey (288 total yards in three games) and tight end George Kittle (29 receptions). Receivers Deebo Samuel (576 total yards) and Brandon Aiyuk (576 receiving yards) also are part of the well-rounded offense. They face a Cardinals defense that yields 26 points per game (30th in NFL). See which team to pick here.

Why the Cardinals can cover

Arizona beat the 49ers by at least a touchdown in both meetings last season. The Cardinals have been avoiding major mistakes no matter who has been at quarterback, and their plus-five turnover margin is far better than San Francisco’s minus-three. They have seven interceptions, and Budda Baker had a key pick last week even though he was expected to miss the game with an ankle injury. The defense is ninth against the run (110 yards per game), so it will try to force Garoppolo into mistakes.

Underdogs are 83-62-4 against the spread (57%) this season, and Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury is 18-6-2 against the spread (75%) in his career as an underdog of three or more points. See which team to pick here.

How to make Cardinals vs. 49ers picks

The model has broken down Monday Night Football’s Cardinals vs. 49ers matchup from all angles. It is leaning Under the total, with the model suggesting turnovers could derail the offenses. The model also has a strong against the spread pick, saying one side cashes well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the picks at SportsLine.

So who wins 49ers vs. Cardinals on Monday Night Football in Mexico City? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the 49ers vs. Cardinals spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 153-108 roll on its top-rated NFL picks.

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