Five-year mortgage rate drops below 6%; UK to be weakest G7 member in 2023 – business live | Business

UK five-year fixed mortgage rates finally drop below 6%

The average five-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped below 6% for the first time since the market turmoil created by the disastrous mini-budget two months ago.

Moneyfacts reports that the typical five-year fixed deal now costs 5.95% per year, the lowest in seven weeks.

That’s down 6.5% a month ago, but still higher than before the mini-budget, when average 5-year and 2-year rates were both around 4.75%.

Mortgage rates have been dropping since Jeremy Hunt tore up his predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng’s plans in mid-October. The Bank of England has also helped, by saying that market expectations of rate rises were too high.

Bank rates is expected to peak over 4.5% next summer, down from 6% expected when the pound slumped to a record low and UK government borrowing costs spiked.

Two-year fixed mortgages costs have also dropped; they now average 6.13%, down from 6.65% a month ago.

Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk, says this fall will be a relief to those looking to borrow:

“Borrowers may well breathe a sigh of relief to see that fixed mortgage rates are starting to fall, but there may be much more room for improvement. As the average five-year fixed mortgage rate falls below 6% for the first time in seven weeks, borrowers who paused their home ownership plans, or indeed parked the idea of refinancing, may now be tempted to scrutinise the latest deals on offer.

But… rates could fall further still, Springall adds:

Indeed, it’s been around two months since both the average two and five-year fixed mortgage rate breached 5% (30 September 2022), but today only a handful of lenders are offering sub-5% fixed deals.

Borrowers may feel they have to be patient for a little while longer yet before they commit to a new fixed mortgage, or even wait until next year to see how the market recovers from the recent interest rate uncertainty.”

Key events

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Europe faces hardest hit from global slowdown

Europe will suffer the most from the global slowdown next year, the OECD says, even though the world economy should avoid a recession.

World economic growth is set to slow from 3.1% this year to 2.2% next year before accelerating to 2.7% in 2024, today’s new forecasts show.

And European countries will bear the brunt of the energy shock, and the disruption to business activity from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Acting OECD chief economist Alvaro Santos Pereira says:

“Our central scenario is not a global recession, but a significant growth slowdown for the world economy in 2023, as well as still high, albeit declining, inflation in many countries.”

The global economy should avoid a recession next year but the worst energy crisis since the 1970s will trigger a sharp slowdown with Europe hit hardest, the OECD said on Tuesday, urging central banks to keep hiking interest rates. https://t.co/EVN6h7Kw1k

— Intl. Business Times (@IBTimes) November 22, 2022

New: @OECD forecasts UK economy will contract by 0.4% next year (biggest fall in GDP in G7) and will grow by only 0.2% in 2024 (weakest growth in G7).

Covid+war in Ukraine+Brexit = slow growth – a serious problem. Governments which can’t raise living standards come unstuck. pic.twitter.com/jBVpPKSJTo

— Joel Hills (@ITVJoel) November 22, 2022

OECD: World paying high price for Ukraine war

The OECD also warns that the global economy is reeling from the Ukraine war, suffering slowing growth and high inflation.

Introducing its latest economic forecasts, the Paris-based organisation says:

The world economy is paying a high price for Russia’s unprovoked, unjustifiable and illegal war of aggression against Ukraine.

With the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic still lingering, the war is dragging down growth and putting additional upward pressure on prices, above all for food and energy. Global GDP stagnated in the second quarter of 2022 and output declined in the G20 economies.

High inflation is persisting for longer than expected. In many economies, inflation in the first half of 2022 was at its highest since the 1980s. With recent indicators taking a turn for the worse, the global economic outlook has darkened.

UK to be weakest G7 member next year

The UK economy will contract more than any of the world’s other seven most advanced nations next year, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warns.

The OECD has slashed its forecasts for UK growth, as high inflation and worker shortages hit the economy, in its latest economic outlook.

The UK economy is expected to shrink by 0.4% in 2023 – down from a previous forecast of flatlining – and grow by just 0.2% in 2024.

Germany is the only other G7 country expected to contract next year, with a 0.3% drop in GDP expected.

Italyis set to grow by 0.2%, with the US expected to expand by 0.5%, France by 0.6%, Canada by 1%, with Japan leading the pack with 1.8%

The UK is likely to be the second weakest performer of the world’s big economies next year, behind only Russia.

Our economic editor Larry Elliott reports:

Although most countries have had their growth forecasts cut by the OECD since June, only Russia’s 5.6% contraction is forecast to be more severe than Britain’s. The poor performance is forecast to continue in 2024 with expansion of 0.2% – the joint weakest alongside Russia.

The OECD’s acting chief economist, Álvaro Pereira, said he was expecting a less severe downturn next year than the 1.4% decline pencilled in by the Office for Budget Responsibility in last week’s autumn statement, but a more subdued recovery in 2024 than the OBR had pencilled in.

Pereira said the OECD thought interest rates would peak at a lower level than the OBR was anticipating, and that the UK would suffer a four-quarter recession ending in the middle of 2023.

The surge in mortgage rates in September and early October has already left some people unable to buy a home, or forced to take on a second job to pay for their loan

UK five-year fixed mortgage rates finally drop below 6%

The average five-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped below 6% for the first time since the market turmoil created by the disastrous mini-budget two months ago.

Moneyfacts reports that the typical five-year fixed deal now costs 5.95% per year, the lowest in seven weeks.

That’s down 6.5% a month ago, but still higher than before the mini-budget, when average 5-year and 2-year rates were both around 4.75%.

Mortgage rates have been dropping since Jeremy Hunt tore up his predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng’s plans in mid-October. The Bank of England has also helped, by saying that market expectations of rate rises were too high.

Bank rates is expected to peak over 4.5% next summer, down from 6% expected when the pound slumped to a record low and UK government borrowing costs spiked.

Two-year fixed mortgages costs have also dropped; they now average 6.13%, down from 6.65% a month ago.

Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts.co.uk, says this fall will be a relief to those looking to borrow:

“Borrowers may well breathe a sigh of relief to see that fixed mortgage rates are starting to fall, but there may be much more room for improvement. As the average five-year fixed mortgage rate falls below 6% for the first time in seven weeks, borrowers who paused their home ownership plans, or indeed parked the idea of refinancing, may now be tempted to scrutinise the latest deals on offer.

But… rates could fall further still, Springall adds:

Indeed, it’s been around two months since both the average two and five-year fixed mortgage rate breached 5% (30 September 2022), but today only a handful of lenders are offering sub-5% fixed deals.

Borrowers may feel they have to be patient for a little while longer yet before they commit to a new fixed mortgage, or even wait until next year to see how the market recovers from the recent interest rate uncertainty.”

2023 will be a tough year for German businesses, according to their industry association.

The BDI predicts that German industrial production will rise slightly this year, despite the economic headwinds from the Ukraine war.

But next year will be a challenge, BDI adds:

“The outlook for 2023 is gloomy. More and more companies in the manufacturing sector are exposed to high energy prices and geopolitical uncertainties.”

Photograph: Tommy (Louth)/Alamy

Online electricals retailer AO World has been hammered by the cost of living crisis, but the future may be brighter after it shut loss-making divisions.

AO has reported that revenues fell 17% in the six months to 30 September, while its pre-tax loss swelled to £12m from £4m in “a tough environment”.

AO insists, though, that its sales are on track, while profits for this year are expected to hit the top of current guidance.

The company, which sells electrical items and kitchen equipment for home delivery, has conducting a ‘strategic pivot’ towards cash generation and profitability, having been hurt by supply chain problems and the economic slowdown.

It warns, though, that it expects more damage from the cost of living crisis affecting consumer spending, and ongoing supply chain issues.

AO’s founder and chief executive, John Roberts, explained:

“We’ve now closed the loss making and cash consumptive parts of our operations meaning the remaining UK business is cash generative, and are successfully closing our German business with a minimal cash impact to the wider Group.

Shares have jumped 15% this morning as investors welcome its higher forecasts, but are still down 45% so far this year.

AO World – of course it still has lower sales, a continuation of losses and net debt, apparently though “made good progress with our strategic realignment as we focus on profitability and cash generation, all of which is yielding the results we expected”. Whatever… call 8.30 am pic.twitter.com/dRnOXHEoEm

— Chris Bailey (@Financial_Orbit) November 22, 2022

Oil shares jump after Opec production boost denial

The oil price, and shares in oil companies, are both rebounding today after Saudi Arabia denied it was discussing an increase in Opec production.

Brent crude has gained 1.5% to $88.80 per barrel this morning, having slumped by $5 per barrel to around $83/barrel yesterday to a 10-month low.

BP’s shares have jumped over 5%, followed by North Sea producer Harbour Energy (+4.7%) and Shell (+3.2%).

They fell on Monday, after reports that Opec and its allies could increase output by 500,000 per day.

It’s been a dramatic time in the oil market, as Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, says:

Saudi Arabia’s denial of the output increase contributed to a 12% round-trip in front-month Brent prices over the past 24 hours.

It is possible that the suggestions to expand Opec+ production were floated to gauge the price reaction. The initial negative follow-through implies that demand concerns warrant a relatively modest increase in output if Opec+ is looking to stabilize prices once the EU embargo kicks in.

Dramatic moves in #OIL
Brent crude oil traded to a low of $82.31/bbl overnight
But then recovered to $87.45/bbl

As Saudi Arabia issued a statement denying WSJ report that OPEC+ producers were considering a production increase

— Harshada Sawant हर्षदा सावंत 🇮🇳 (@AEHarshada) November 22, 2022

G4S strike prompts fears of festive cash shortages at banks and shops

Julia Kollewe

Julia Kollewe

A G4S security van parked outside a bank in Loughborough
A G4S security van parked outside a bank in Loughborough Photograph: Darren Staples/Reuters

There are fears of cash shortages in the run-up to Christmas, after more than 1,000 security workers who deliver cash and coins to some of the UK’s biggest banks and supermarkets voted to strike in December.

The strike by 1,200 members of the GMB union who work for the security company G4S is due to take place from 3am on 5 December, after 97% of workers voted for industrial action in a row over pay.

G4S Cash Solutions clients include Barclays, Lloyds and HSBC as well as retailers including Tesco, Asda, Aldi, Morrisons and Boots, and the pub chains Wetherspoon’s and Greene King.

G4S Cash, part of Allied International, initially offered members a part-pay freeze, and then proposed a 4.5% pay rise and a lump-sum bonus based on contracted hours, the GMB said.

Although UK borrowing was £4.4bn higher than last October, it was lower than September’s £17.7bn bill, points out Victoria Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor:

While central government expenditure was £6.5bn higher than October last year, tax receipts increased by £2.5bn year-on-year, meaning that less borrowing was required allowing PSNB (public sector net borrowing) to come in better or less than expected, despite spending pressures from energy support measures.

In the Autumn Statement, Jeremy Hunt underscored his commitment to being part of a Treasury that relies far less than his predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng on borrowing from the gilt market. In fact. his fiscal plans mean the government will be issuing £31bn fewer gilts after the fiscal fiasco of the mini-budget in September.”

Martin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, points out that today’s public finances don’t include the cost of protecting businesses from energy costs.

Once that support for non-domestic users is factored in, borrowing will be even higher.

Beck says:

The cost of energy support programmes is becoming increasingly apparent in the UK public finances data, with October’s borrowing outturn including the first costs of the energy price guarantee and the energy bills support scheme.

The cost of the scheme for businesses has still to be added, so large year-on-year increases in borrowing are likely for the rest of fiscal year 2023-2024.

Hunt: It’s right to borrow to support firm and families

Here’s chancellor of the exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, on October’s jump in borrowing:

“It is right that the government increased borrowing to support millions of business and families throughout the pandemic, and the aftershocks of Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.

“But to tackle inflation and ensure the economic stability needed for long-term growth, it is vital that we put the public finances back on a more sustainable path.

“There is no easy path to balancing the nation’s books, but we have taken the necessary decisions to get debt falling while actively taking steps to protect jobs, public services and the most vulnerable.”

Energy price support has put UK borrowing back on an upward trend, says Paul Dales of Capital Economics:

October’s public finances figures showed that government borrowing is no longer coming in below last year’s monthly totals.

And the combination of the government’s energy price support and pressures from the weakening economy implies that borrowing will come in at £175bn (6.9% of GDP) in 2022/23, a huge £42bn above the 2021/22 total.

But there is some good news in October’s public finances release too:

The full-year estimate for the 2021/22 fiscal year was revised down a fraction from £133.3bn to £132.7bn. And borrowing for the previous six months of the 2022/23 fiscal year was revised down by £1.6bn.

Here’s a breakdown of the UK public finances, from ONS public sector finance statistician Fraser Munro:

This month the public sector spent £91.2 billion, a rise of £8.8 billion compared to October 2021 and its income rose £4.5 billion to £77.6 billion. pic.twitter.com/NPiBZPUTWs

— Fraser Munro (@Fraser_ONS_PSF) November 22, 2022

Central government, the largest part of the public sector spent £84.5 billion in October 2022, a rise of £8.8 billion compared to a year earlier, while its income fell by £1.0 billion to £70.2 billion. pic.twitter.com/ZriKAQZ4V9

— Fraser Munro (@Fraser_ONS_PSF) November 22, 2022

Central government current or day-to-day expenditure was £76.8 billion, £6.5 billion more than in October 2021 and includes the first payments under the government’s energy support schemes to households and to domestic energy suppliers.

— Fraser Munro (@Fraser_ONS_PSF) November 22, 2022

Introduction: Energy support pushes up UK borrowing

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

UK government borrowing jumped last month, lifted by support with household energy bills, and soaring inflation which drove up interest payments.

Britain’s public sector net borrowing came in at £13.5bn in October, more than £4bn more than the £9.2bn which was borrowed in October 2021 to balance the books.

It’s the fourth highest October borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.

Public sector net borrowing, excluding public sector banks, was £13.5 billion in October 2022.

This was £4.4 billion more than in October 2021 and the fourth highest October borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.

➡️ pic.twitter.com/aAP3fwT1xk

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 22, 2022

Government spending was lifted by £1.9bn by the cost of helping households with energy bills. That £400 payment is being paid in six monthly installments, starting in October.

Former PM Liz Truss’s pledge to cap household bills at an average of £2,500 per year also added over £1bn to government spending.

Michal Stelmach, senior economist at KPMG UK, says:

“The public finances continue to face a tug of war between demand for energy support and the overarching need to balance the books.

As things stand, the headroom against meeting the new fiscal targets is hanging by a thread, and we expect that they could easily be missed thanks to a less favourable economic outlook compared to the OBR’s forecast.”

Public sector net debt, excluding public sector banks, was £2,459.9 billion at the end of October 2022, or around 97.5% of GDP.

An increase of £148.3 billion but a decrease of 0.5 percentage points of GDP compared with October 2021. pic.twitter.com/MgdPGEj3XS

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) November 22, 2022

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who outlined a £55bn package of spending cuts and tax increases last week, has warned that “There is no easy path to balancing the nation’s books” (more from the chancellor shortly).

Hunt also announced more support for energy bills last week, beyond April, which will push borrowing higher still.

October’s borrowing figure was actually lower than City economists expected.

But the UK spent £6.1bn on interest payments on the national debt. Over half that bill (£3.3bn) was due to the surge in the retail price index, which sets the interest payment on index-linked gilts.

Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted that the national debt will peak at almost 100% of national output in three years, driven up by higher debt interest, inflation-linked welfare spending, and a weaker economy.

Underlying public sector net debt (excluding the Bank of England) rises to a 63-year peak of 98% of GDP in 2025-26 and then falls slightly to 97% of GDP in 2027-28. Medium-term debt is 18% of GDP – over £400bn – higher than forecast in March.#AutumnStatement pic.twitter.com/9BlZ4ugvWL

— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) November 17, 2022

Also coming up today

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is to tell business leaders at Britain’s ‘immigration dependency’ must end.

Bosses have been pushing Westminster to use immigration to solve worker shortages and boost economic growth. But the Labour leader will tell the CBI conference this morning that UK businesses must wean themselves off “cheap labour” and that a low-pay model for growth is no longer working for the British people.

My colleague Jessica Elgot reports:

The Labour leader is expected to say to the Confederation of British Industry conference that his party will be “pragmatic” about the shortage of workers and not ignore the need for skilled migrants – but stressed that any changes “will come with new conditions for business”.

Starmer will say Labour expects to keep a points-based immigration system and to train up more workers, especially in high-skilled jobs and the NHS. But he stopped short of pledging that overall migration should come down – a promise that Rishi Sunak renewed last week.

Energy regulator Ofgem is warning that suppliers have been failing vulnerable customers, as people face a cold and costly winter, with 5 particularly weak.

For example, some suppliers are setting debt repayments so high that customers felt they couldn’t top-up their pre-payment meters.

The OECD is publishing its twice-yearly analysis of the major global economic trends and prospects for the next two year. It’ll show how advanced economies, including the UK, are expected to fare….

And the Treasury committee will question top officials from the Office for National Statistics, about last week’s autumn statement

The agenda

  • 7am GMT: UK public finances for October

  • 10am GMT: OECD publishes its economic outlook

  • 2.15pm GMT: Treasury committee hearing on the autumn statement, with the OBR

  • 3pm GMT: Eurozone consumer confidence estimate for November

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